Abstract
The energy transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free sources will be a big challenge in the coming decades. In this context, the long-term prediction of energy demand plays a key role in planning energy infrastructures and in adopting economic and energy policies. In this article, we aimed to forecast energy demand for Spain, mainly employing econometrics techniques. From information obtained from institutional databases, energy demand was decomposed into many factors and economy-related activity sectors, obtaining a set of disaggregated sequences of time-dependent values. Using time-series techniques, a long-term prediction was then obtained for each component. Finally, every element was aggregated to obtain the final long-term energy demand forecast. For the year 2030, an energy demand equivalent to 82 million tons of oil was forecast. Due to improvements in energy efficiency in the post-crisis period, a decoupling of economy and energy demand was obtained, with a 30% decrease in energy intensity for the period 2005–2030. World future scenarios show a significant increase in energy demand due to human development of less developed economies. For Spain, our research concluded that energy demand will remain stable in the next decade, despite the foreseen 2% annual growth of the nation’s economy. Despite the enormous energy concentration and density of fossil fuels, it will not be affordable to use them to supply energy demand in the future. The consolidation of renewable energies and increasing energy efficiency is the only way to satisfy the planet’s energy needs.
Highlights
A demand growth of 23% over 1990 was justified by a 50% growth in gross value added (GVA), a −10% reduction due to a structural change in economy, and a −10% improvement in energy efficiency or energy use per
A demand growth of 23% over 1990 was justified by a 50% growth in gross value added (GVA), a −10% reduction due to a structural change in economy, and a −10% improvement in energy efficiency or energy use per economic unit
(2005–2030), they behave in an uncoupled way due to increasing energy efficiency, depicted in the they behave in uncoupled way due increasing energy efficiency, depicted in the graph by they behave in an uncoupled way due to increasing energy efficiency, depicted in the graph graph by by decreasing energy intensity
Summary
The commitments of the European Union, derived from the Paris Agreement, established a goal of reducing emissions between 80% and 95% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels [2]. This necessarily leads to the electrification of most of the energy demand, which would cause the demand for electricity to approximately double what it is currently before the year 2060 [3]. In this context, the prediction of energy demand plays a key role in planning energy infrastructures and in adopting economic and energy policies.
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