Abstract
The aim of this paper is to identify the effect of an increase in the size of the New South Wales (NSW) Police Force on the volume of crime and arrests. To identify these relationships, I use data containing the monthly count of police, property crime, and arrests for property crime over the period 2002 − 2012. I employ a dynamic ordinary least squares approach to account for the correlation between changes in the size of the police force and the resulting short-run disequilibrium. My preferred specification indicates that a sustained 10 percent increase in the size of the police force generates: a 4 percent reduction in property crime; and a 6 percent reduction in arrests for property crime. Given that all custodial episodes begin with an arrest, this suggests that police reduce property crime through deterrence, rather than incapacitation. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that each additional officer offsets around 20 percent of her annual salary by deterring theft and motor vehicle theft alone.
Published Version
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