Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of recreational cannabis legalization on the chance of returning to prison for ex-offenders. While there have been ongoing debates on the relationship between cannabis and public safety, there is no previous study about how cannabis legalization affects the chance of recidivism for ex-offenders. Using national corrections data between 2006 and 2019, this study employs a difference-in-difference model (Two-way Fixed Effects model, TWFE) using the different timing of cannabis legalization across states. Also, this model adopts an alternative difference-in-difference estimate proposed by de Chaisemartin and D’Haultfœuille to address a potential bias of the traditional TWFE estimate due to the heterogeneous effects of different treatment timings. The results from both models do not imply that cannabis legalization affects the chance of returning to prison within one year after release. The main result holds true for different specifications, including altering the definition of neighboring states or substituting cannabis sales dates for legalization dates. Nor are there effects for subgroups based on ex-offenders’ characteristics.
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