The limits of consumption and production of food in China in 2030

Abstract

Maximum global food demand is estimated for the 15 major regions of the world by multiplying population size and average human diet. Low, medium and high population growth scenarios are considered, as well as a vegetarian, moderate and affluent diet. The food demand is compared with the maximum food production in each region, which is computed from (i) the area with soils suitable for cropping and grazing, (ii) the climatological conditions, (iii) the amount of irrigation water available and (iv) the farming system used. Two alternative farming systems are considered: (i) production-oriented agriculture with high hectare yields due to ample, but efficient, use of fertilizer and biocides, and (ii) environment-oriented agriculture where legume crops provide all nitrogen and no biocides are used, but with lower hectare yields. We focus on comparisons of food demand and supply in East Asia, comprising China, Japan and Korea. Since China accounts for more than 85% of the population of this region and for 94% of its territory, it is a fair first approximation to apply our data for East Asia to China. While the global total demand for food can be easily met by the global total production potential, there are extraordinarily large differences between regions and continents. In Asia as a whole, and in China separately, food production cannot meet food demand in all scenarios. A moderate or affluent diet remains out of reach of a large part of the Asian population, even with maximum use of all natural resources, unless a much more efficient food technology emerges or massive food imports take place. With production-oriented agriculture on all its suitable land, China can offer its people a moderate diet. Although our basic data are not accurate and our conclusions have a fair degree of uncertainty, we draw attention to the limited scope for raising food production with current technology, because the supply of suitable land is virtually exhausted and the supply of irrigation water is limited, intensive agriculture is already practised on a large scale, and the yield ceiling for current crops could be reached within decades. Furthermore, a direct competition might develop for agricultural land between production of food and feed, and production of energy for rural development. Major research efforts are required to exploit fully current food production technology and to improve it significantly.