Food wedges: Framing the global food demand and supply challenge towards 2050

In examining the long-term prospects for global food supply and demand, the balance of research has favoured the examination of global food supply, and not global food demand (Centre for Agricultural and Economic Development, 1967; Chou et al., 1977; Council on Environmental Quality, 1980; Crosson and Anderson, 1992; FAO, 1993; Mitchell and Ingco, 1993; Bongaarts, 1994). Forecasting of global food demand has been limited to an exploration of alternative assumptions about the growth of incomes, prices and population. In particular, the analysis and forecasting of global food demand has used income and price elasticities estimated from historical data, which assume a fixed link between levels of income and levels of food demand. (For expository purposes, this discussion presumes a particular pattern of prices. With changing relative prices, the link between incomes and food demand is more complicated, but this does not change the fundamental argument being made here.)

The world population is expected to grow to 7.7 billion in 2020, from 5.3 billion in 1993 (UN, 1996). Although the latest population projections represent a slowdown from past estimates, the large absolute increase in population raises serious concerns about how food demand will be met in the next decades, especially in the context of a possibly stagnant or even decreasing stock of natural resources. These concerns have escalated sharply in recent years, in the face of dramatic increases in world cereal prices in 1996, combined with declining cereal stocks, and the simultaneous appearance of several widely read publications presenting the possibility of a starving world in the next century, unable to meet growing food demands from a deteriorating natural resource base (Brown, 1995; Tyler, 1995; Brown and Kane, 1994). In this paper, we examine the prospects for global food supply and demand for the year 2020, in the light of the two most often identified natural resource constraints, land and water. We first briefly summarize recent trends in area, yield and production for cereal crops, the key staple crops for most of the world, describe the IMPACT global food projections model and present an overview of food demand and supply projections. We then ask whether land and water constraints will pose serious threats to long-term cereal production growth. In particular, we assess the effects of land degradation and land conversion to urban uses on agricultural production and the effect of increasing water scarcity on future global food supply. For the latter assessment, we develop projections of global water demand until 2020 that are consistent with the underlying assumptions in the global food projections. We conclude with implications for land and water policy.

The increase in prices of food commodities since 2001, culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 gave birth to the food versus fuel debate. Several studies over the past few years have pointed to biofuels as one of the culprits of the food crisis; although the magnitudes of impact in these studies vary widely depending on the underlying assumptions and structure of the models used for the analysis. The food versus fuel debate will accelerate if the expansion of crop-based or first-generation biofuels continues without appropriate arrangements for food security given that the global food demand is projected to double by 2050. The existing literature, in general, does not favour a large-scale diversion of food commodities towards production of biofuels at the global scale because it does not help much to substitute a significant portion of fossil fuels: instead, it simply puts substantial pressure on the global food supply. However, in some countries and regions where land supply is not an issue, production of biofuels should not be ruled out. Moreover, if regulated properly, biofuels could provide incentives to utilize abandoned and marginal lands for agricultural production, help improve agriculture intensification and generate employment in rural areas. In response to the food versus fuel debate, many countries have now focused on advanced biofuels that do not directly compete with food supply, although they do through land reallocations. Some countries have also designed policy framework to protect crop lands and natural forests from biofuel expansion. Some literature argues that intensification of agricultural, particularly in developing countries, would help address the food versus fuel debate, whereas others contend that any increase in agricultural production must be focused on meeting the growing food demand.

Will reaching the maximum achievable yield potential meet future global food demand?

The United Nations Millennium Declaration involved member nations in seeking to reduce extreme hunger and poverty measured against targets set for 2015. There may have been some success to date, 1 with the estimated total number of undernourished people falling by 17 per cent since 1990 -1992 (FAO 2013)). But there remained around one in eight people in the world who suffered from chronic hunger in 2011-2013. While the measured progress shows marked regional differences, sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest prevalence of undernourishment. Progress has been slow in South Asia although the experience appears more positive in East and South-East Asia and Latin America.

The continuous upward trajectory observed in total grain production serves as a fundamental pillar for guaranteeing food security. Nevertheless, relying solely on the measurement of China’s overall food security status through total grain output is inherently biased and neglects to capture the comprehensive nature of food security. This study adopts a food supply and demand balance perspective and constructs an evaluation indicator system for food security based on indicators such as grain yield per unit area, per capita grain possession, grain inventory, and inventory ratio. The weight of each indicator in the food security system is calculated using the entropy value method, and a comprehensive evaluation of China’s food security level from 1980 to 2017 is conducted. The study revealed that China’s food supply and demand exhibited a discernible upward trajectory in development. Notably, the food supply demonstrated greater volatility, whereas the food demand remained relatively stable but experienced incremental growth. Between approximately 1985 and 1993, China’s food supply and demand subsystem briefly experienced a state of mild imbalance, followed by a state of moderate imbalance around 2003. These imbalances were primarily attributed to insufficient effective food supply. In terms of the equilibrium between supply and demand in the context of food security, China’s food supply and demand exhibit a predominantly balanced condition with a slight surplus, wherein the adequacy of food supply significantly influences food security. Furthermore, the provision of policy support serves as a robust assurance for food security, and China’s existing policy framework for food security demonstrates a constructive impact.

In projecting global food demand to 2050, much attention has been given to rising demand due to the projected population increase from the current 7.4 billion to more than 9 billion. An increasingly important source of the increase in food demand is per capita demand growth induced by rising income per person. Since the proportion of income spending on food decreases as incomes rise, growth in global food demand will be greater if incomes grow faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. Such a pattern of income convergence has become established in recent years, making it important to assess the implications for food demand and supply. Using a resource-based measure of food that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with dietary upgrading, this paper concludes that per capita demand growth is likely to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections to 2050, which assume continued income convergence, the paper finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be roughly a third greater than without convergence (78 percent). Since the impact of convergence on the supply side is much more muted, convergence puts upward pressure on world food prices, partially offsetting a baseline trend toward falling world food prices to 2050.

In projecting global food demand to 2050, much attention has been given to rising demand due to the projected population increase from the current 7.4 billion to more than 9 billion. An increasingly important source of the increase in food demand is per capita demand growth induced by rising income per person. Since the proportion of income spending on food decreases as incomes rise, growth in global food demand will be greater if incomes grow faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. Such a pattern of income convergence has become established in recent years, making it important to assess the implications for food demand and supply. Using a resource-based measure of food that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with dietary upgrading, this paper concludes that per capita demand growth is likely to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections to 2050, which assume continued income convergence, the paper finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be roughly a third greater than without convergence (78 percent). Since the impact of convergence on the supply side is much more muted, convergence puts upward pressure on world food prices, partially offsetting a baseline trend toward falling world food prices to 2050.

Food security is the foundation of sustainable human development, and the balance between food supply and demand in urban areas is highly important for promoting residents' health and the sustainable development of cities. This paper takes the Urumqi Metropolitan Area (UMA), a typical oasis urban area, as the study area and uses the food production-demand gap indicator to assess the balance of food production and consumption in the region from 2000 to 2020 and projects food demand in 2030-2060. The results show, first, that residents' food consumption is characterized by high carbohydrate, protein, and fat consumption, and that this put more pressure on food production. Second, different food consumption structures will have different impacts on food production, and the local food production capacity in UMA falls short of ensuring a balanced nutritional structure for residents. Third, food demand increases significantly in 2030-2060, and the pressure of population consumption structure on food production is much greater than that of population growth. Considering the environmental effects of food transportation and the loss of food nutrients, on the production side, the construction of the UMA should be accelerated by including Qitai County and Jimsar County in the UMA's planning scope, strengthening city-regional connections, and improving the local food production and supply capacity of surrounding areas. On the consumption side, regional dietary guidelines should be developed based on local dietary culture and agricultural production conditions to help guide residents to adjust their dietary structures, thereby alleviating pressure on local food demand. Such measures are crucial for ensuring sufficient food supply and promoting balanced nutrition among the population.

The sustainable use of arable land is a necessity to ensure future global food security. Arable land provides most of the food and necessities of life for human beings, and is the key to achieving the "poverty-free" (Sustainable Development Goals 1, hereinafter referred to as SDG1), "zero hunger" (SDG2), "sustainable cities and communities" (hereinafter referred to as SDG2) and "sustainable cities and communities" (hereinafter referred to as SDG2) objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Programme. SDG1 (hereinafter referred to as "SDG1"), "Zero Hunger" (SDG2), "Sustainable Cities and Communities" (SDG11), and "Climate Action" (SDG13) of the United Nations Sustainable Development Programme (SDP), "terrestrial organisms" (SDG15), and other key resource-environmental elements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Cropland expansion and cropland intensification have been important strategies for increasing food production, but with the global depletion of cropland reserves, increasing food production by expanding the area of cropland is no longer viable, and the pressure for food security has shifted to the existing cropland, which accounts for 38 per cent of the global terrestrial area. In the last 20 years, global food production has almost doubled, but the area of arable land has increased by only 9%. Demand for food is accelerating in tandem with rapid global economic and social development, population expansion and improved diets. The global demand for food is expected to increase by about 70 to 100 per cent by 2050, which not only puts enormous pressure on existing arable land but also poses a great challenge to the future food security of the world. The sustainable use of existing arable land is the only way to meet the growing demand for food and avoid a global food crisis.

There is considerable uncertainty about how much food will be produced and how much land and other resources will be required in 2050 (Hertel, Baldos and van der Mensbrugghe, 2016). Part of the challenge is that we still do not understand the relative importance of different drivers of demand. Of particular note is the relative role of population and income that drives future sustainability stresses. Over the past 50 years, population has been the main driver of food demand, as global population has risen rapidly from 3.6 billion in 1968 to 7.6 billion in early 2018. Furthermore, the FAO predicts that the world population is expected to grow over 2 billion in the next thirty-some years, while at the same time per capita incomes on a global scale are projected to be raised several-fold. Projections to the future food consumption however are mixed. Baldos and Hertel (2014) argue that income will overtake population as the key driver of food demand as population growth shifts to the poorer countries where per capita consumption is lower and less resource-intensive. Meanwhile strong income growth in the developing countries will lead to dietary upgrading and strong income-driven growth in demand. On the other hand, Gouel and Guimbard (2017) come to the opposite conclusion, arguing that population will persist as the main driver of global food demand to 2050. However, their analysis abstracts from the supply side of the puzzle, assuming perfectly elastic supplies of food and fixed prices. For this reason, the two studies are not comparable. A key factor in this debate is understanding how the income elasticities of demand for food will evolve as incomes rise. This paper seeks to shed further light on this debate by incorporating a new demand system (MAIDADS) into the SIMPLE model of global food supply and demand, using this revised framework to determine the relative importance of income and population growth in driving global food output to 2050.

For sustainable food security, food supplies must keep pace with increasing population and urbanization which can partially be achieved by reducing the yield losses caused by the destructive pests and disease activities to the harvestable parts of the crops. A doubling in global demand for food projected by 2050 or beyond imposes a number of challenges for agricultural sustainability. Today, plant growth to meet human demands for food is enhanced by the increasing input of agrochemicals, which act as plant nutrients as well as plant growth regulators (PGRs). Apart from increasing the cost of production, excessive use of chemicals increases the possibilities of land degradation and deteriorating environmental quality. To overcome this problem and enhance crop production, utilization of microorganisms for sustainability is one of the most ideal and compatible approaches while maximizing profits and keeping people and the planet safe. Numerous microorganisms including fungi, actinomycetes, bacteria, and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) posess mechanisms of plant growth promotion. These microorganisms help in the recycling of materials to increase nutrient uptake and improve plant health by providing plants with protection against attack by phytopathogens in the form of biocontrol agents and toxic effects of nutrient hyper-accumulation. The use of these microbes should not be overemphasized. Hence in this chapter we aim to highlight the roles of such microorganisms in sustainable crop protection and food production for global food security.KeywordsCrop protectionFood securityMicrobesNutrientsSustainability

Understanding trends in food supply and demand are of great importance to the maintenance of China’s food security. We identified natural disasters (floods, drought, hail and frost), resource constraints, input constraints and growth of food demand as sources of risk, which could cause food insecurity. We therefore conducted an integrated three-step risk assessment, based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and scenario analysis method. The results predict that, irrespective of the total food demand and scenario, China could guarantee more than 90 % food self-sufficiency as long as the identified natural disasters occurred at no more than the historical average for the period 1986–2011. However, in a pessimistic scenario, consisting of the simultaneous occurrence of the worst natural disasters over this period, the consequent annual grain shortfall would put most provinces and cities into the medium or high risk range for food security in both 2015 and 2020. In such a scenario, the current grain stock is only sufficient to buffer China’s grain supplies for one year. In most scenarios, 10 of the 13 major grain producing provinces will have the ability to maintain their current food self-sufficiency rates over the next few years, but the food self-sufficiency rates of the more developed provinces and the largest cities will continue to decline, mainly because of the reduction in cultivated land and accelerating urbanization.

Cutting edge technologies to end food waste

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's currentper capitaincome is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population andper capitaconsumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.