The Influence of External Environmental to the Relationship between Infrastructure Financing and Success in Implementation of Kenya Vision 2030 Public Capital Projects

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Purpose: This study examined the impact of infrastructure financing on the successful implementation of public capital projects under Kenya’s Vision 2030. It specifically focused on the mediating influence of external socio-economic and political factors and aimed to identify the extent to which these variables influence project success. Materials and Methods: A positivistic approach was adopted, utilizing quantitative data and hypothesis testing to generate conclusions. The study employed a descriptive cross-sectional research design to analyze high-impact infrastructure projects in the roads, energy, and water & sanitation sectors over the past decade under Kenya’s Medium-Term Plans (MTP I and MTP II). Data were collected from 313 projects, including 220 in roads, 20 in power and energy, and 73 in water and sanitation, achieving a response rate of 83.07%. Descriptive statistics, multiple linear regression, and factor analysis were used to explore relationships between infrastructure financing, project success, and external environment factors. Findings: The study revealed that infrastructure financing significantly influenced the success of public capital project implementation, while the external socio-economic and political environment mediated this relationship. However, these factors alone did not sufficiently explain cost and time overruns, suggesting that other unexplored variables contribute to these project inefficiencies. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: The findings imply that existing theories on project success must consider additional variables beyond financing and external environments to explain cost and time overruns. In practice, implementing agencies should enhance internal assessments and risk management, particularly for projects financed through public-private partnerships (PPPs). Policymakers, including the Government of Kenya, should prioritize governance frameworks and robust risk management strategies to mitigate external environmental risks, thereby improving the success rate of Vision 2030 projects.