Abstract
Climate change has been linked with increased conflict risk through resource scarcity or forced migration but there remains a gap in understanding how these impacts vary across different types of conflicts. This study addresses this gap by examining the heterogeneous effects of long-term temperature and precipitation deviations on various conflict categories. I employ panel regression and a long-difference approach with UCDP data for 2780 conflicts from 1998-2020 in 81 low- and mid-income countries. My main finding confirms that climate impacts are indeed heterogeneous across conflict categories as lagged temperature deviations of 1°C increase the expected mean count of non-state conflict by 88.55% while armed conflict and one-sided violence are not affected significantly. This effect even increases to 117% when countries with high base temperatures are used for the estimation, suggesting different vulnerability levels as warmer countries also experience higher real conflict counts. The long-difference approach supports these results. Contrary to earlier studies, I did not find significant precipitation effects. 
Published Version
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