The incredible shrinking president and the economy

Abstract

This paper employs regression analysis to investigate alternative explanations of presidential approval ratings. Since perhaps the greatest determinant, actual performance, is not readily measurable, the analysis is restricted to the first and fourth month of each term, a period sufficiently short that performance might not be expected to be clearly established. Strong empirical evidence is found to support: (1) the importance of economic conditions, especially those projected for the upcoming quarter; (2) a handicap in approval ratings today of about 11 points when compared to 1948; (3) an advantage (of about 5 to 13 points) enjoyed by Republican Presidents; and (4) the existence of a honeymoon (of about 6 points) in the first month of a presidential term that dissipates by the fourth month. Perhaps most important, strong evidence is found to discount the value of one and four month approval ratings as an accurate reflection of public evaluation of a President’s abilities or performance. Instead, those ratings are almost entirely explained by factors outside the control of the individual Presidents.