The Impacts of Critical Metal Shortage on China's Electric Vehicle Industry Development and Countermeasure Policies

Abstract

Electric vehicle has been taken as the key technology in road transportation sector to achieve carbon neutrality. However, considering China’s critical metal resource endowment, the impacts of potential metal supply shortage on the EV industry development goal need to be considered. Therefore, in the present study, a dynamic stock-flow model is proposed to calculate the impacts of potential critical metal shortages (including Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium) and the countermeasures’ roles. The obtained results show that: i) The current resource endowment in China cannot meet the metal demand for electric vehicle industry development target. From 2020 to 2050, metal shortage may cut the accumulative electric vehicle production potential by 63.3 million units, leading to 23.8 Bt extra greenhouse gas emissions; ii) In terms of specific metal types, Lithium and Nickel shortage will happen in 2032 and 2037; iii) There are 87-200.1 Kt, 17.4 - 40 Kt, and 32.8 - 72.8 Kt Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium resource respectively can be obtained from battery recycling system under different scenarios. The findings of this study are significant for policy makers to further understand the nexus between emission abatement and mineral conservation in the electric vehicle industry development and propose relevant polices.