The impact of the metaverse on e-commerce business models – A delphi-based scenario study

Abstract

Despite the current buzz for the metaverse, its evolution has yet to be determined, and there is still a great deal of ambiguity, resulting in difficulties to forecast future opportunities. A deeper comprehension of the metaverse ecosystem is crucial to facilitate long-term planning and the dynamic adaptation of business models in the closely related e-commerce sector. Consequently, the main objective of this paper is to explore how the metaverse impacts e-commerce business models. A two-round Delphi-based scenario study (time horizon 2035) was conducted with 26 participating experts to achieve the objective. Based on the expert responses, twenty projections were clustered into three possible future scenarios: (1) immersive and emotional commerce, (2) altered digital landscape, and (3) game changer. The scenarios indicate that the metaverse development will strongly influence e-commerce business models at the customer interface and core strategy. New business models will emerge, and existing business models will adopt the metaverse as an additional channel. As purely digital products gain increased importance, the digital landscape will be altered to fulfill new customer requests. Although improbable by 2035, the game-changing scenario entails a complete transition to digital products and the replacement of present e-commerce with metaverse commerce.