THE IMPACT OF THE EXPONENTIALLY RISING ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA IN THE EU

Abstract

Four decades have passed since the EU and China established diplomatic relations in 1975, and now became mutually indispensable economic partners, presenting both an opportunity and challenge. During that time, after the first market reforms were introduced in 1978, China has transitioned from a predominantly agricultural to industrial and service-oriented economy. On 11 December 2001, China also became the 143rd member of the WTO. The aim of this research is to quantitatively compare the US, EU and Chinese GDP from 1995 to 2014, the US and Chinese outward FDI from 1995 to 2013, and the EU 28 Total Imports from and Exports to the US and China between 2002 to 2014, and analyse the impact of the exponentially rising Chinese investments in the European Union (EU). We have found that while the US economy experienced a regression in general, and exhibited outward FDI exponential decrease in particular, the Chinese outward FDI sustained an exponential growth. Our analysis has shown that the now weakened US dollar and diminished US economic and industrial power, along with the US designed and archaic post World War II European institutions, vitiated by the recent US Economic Recession, which has swept along the EU and all other US dependent foreign economies globally, are and will continue to experience the primary impact of the exponentially rising economic investment of China in the EU. Furthermore, we have found that the Chinese economic growth has been affecting both the EU identity and policies. Yet, its full effect is waiting to be realized. The Chinese investment in the EU is estimated to peak during the next decade, when China will become by far the foremost economic partner of the EU. This crossroad may be reached as soon as in few years’ time and contribute towards the EU – Asian regional stabilization. In the changing context of the Sino – EU - US relations, due to the exponentially growing economic prosperity and rising global influence of China, the EU international institutions and socio-political structures will re-emerge with the once forgotten access to the 21st Century Silk Road Economic Belt, “The Silk Road II”, between China and the EU in the foreseeable future.