Abstract
Understanding the impact of sea level rise on coastal areas is crucial as a large percentage of the population live on the coast. This study uses computational tools to examine how two major consequences of sea level rise: salt intrusion and an increase in water volume affect the hydrodynamics and flooding areas of a major estuary in the Iberian Peninsula. A 2D numerical model created with the software MOHID was used to simulate the Guadiana Estuary in different scenarios of sea level rise combined with different freshwater flow rates considering varying tidal amplitudes. An increase in salinity was found in response to an increase in mean sea level in both high and low freshwater flow rates at all areas around the estuary. An increase in flooding areas around the estuary was also positively correlated with an increase in mean sea level.
Highlights
A rise in mean sea level is a global concern as 10 % of the world’s population live within 10 m elevation of the current sea level [3]
The results of the model are displayed as follows: section 3.1 includes the results of three time series locations on the western margin of the estuary in the saltmarshes of Castro Marim, section 3.2 includes the horizontal distribution of salinity as well as changes in salinity intrusion length in response to sea level rise, section 3.3 explores salinity distribution at spring and neap tide, and section 3.4 examines flooding areas due to sea level rise
The results demonstrate an overall increase in area covered by higher salinity values with respect to sea level rise for all cases of freshwater flow and tide
Summary
A rise in mean sea level is a global concern as 10 % of the world’s population live within 10 m elevation of the current sea level [3]. Based on projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. An acceleration in global sea level rise has been reported throughout the 20th century based on satellite altimeter data [6]. As the number of people accommodating coastal areas increases, an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise will severely impact society and the economy. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal areas include submergence of land, increased flooding, increased erosion, changes in ecosystems and an increase in salinity [16]. Not yet fully explored in the literature is how the dynamics of salinity in estuaries will evolve due to sea level rise. It is the aim of this work to quantify a relationship between sea level rise and salinity content in estuaries, as an increase in estuarine salinity has the potential to damage estuarine environments
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