Abstract
Abstract: According to Ministry of Finance of Pakistanin the year 2016-17, agriculture sector contributed to GDP 19.8% and employees about 42.3% a labor force in country. Pakistan has been ranked 7th in climate change by theGlobal climate rise index in 2017, this rank indicates a great challenge for the Pakistan in agriculture sector due to further climate change in future.There are few gases such as greenhouse gases, CO2, carbon dioxide, methane and nitro oxide that mainly are responsible for changes to global climate. The climate change leads to change in rainfall, sea level and flow of water due to increase in temperature. There are many variables which may affect output of agriculture sector of Pakistan but in this study author mainly focused temperature and rainfall in terms of climate change. This study is based on secondary data from year 2000 to 2015.The monthly data of temperature and rainfall has been collected from world economic indicator and 12 months’ data was divided for converting these variables into average. Agriculture GDP output collected from Economic Survey of Pakistan’s various annual issues. Agriculture GDP output in terms of percentage, average rainfall mm andaverage temperature in centigradevariables have been used for the conclusion ofmain objective of this study.Data analyzed through various statistical techniques such as unit root test, OLS regression analysis and Johnson co-integration in E-view 7 version.The estimated results revealed that theaverage rainfall mm has negative and significant impact but average temperature has positive and insignificant impact on agriculture GDP output in terms of percentage in short run.
Highlights
The atmospheric situation that may last for some days is called as weather
The results of this study revealed that all studied variables such as average rainfall, square of average rainfall and temperature to have negative and significant impact on crop productivity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan especially southern region of province
Secondary Data This study is based on secondary data and we have collected the data from Pakistan Economic Survey and World Bank economic indicators
Summary
The atmospheric situation that may last for some days is called as weather. If, such a situation carries a day season or couple of years known as climate. The results of this study revealed that all studied variables such as average rainfall, square of average rainfall and temperature to have negative and significant impact on crop productivity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan especially southern region of province. It is suggested in keeping view to final results of this study that for better output in future agriculture policymaker of Pakistan should adopt effective and latest techniques for reducing climate impact in southern region of province in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan (Babar et al, 2015). Land under wheat production, wheat production price, fertilizer, technology, carbon dioxide has significant and positive impact It is proposed based on final results of this study that agriculture sector of Pakistan needs to adopt strategies in order to reduce impact of climate change (Janjua et al, 2010).
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