The impact of Brexit on supply chain cost and Ro-Ro traffic at Dover

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the potential impact of Brexit on port congestion and supply chain cost using the example of the largest European Ro-Ro port of Dover. A microscopic simulation model is constructed to replicate traffic conditions and analyse different scenarios. The results show that the current port infrastructure will have difficulties facing the challenges that Brexit could have brought. Checkpoints for border controls are found to be the primary bottleneck. Three types of countermeasures are discussed and found that none of the single measures is sufficient. However, the combination of two additional border checking booths and 10% traffic reduction is the most realistic and effective solution to contain the congestion. The case study shows the company’s supply chain costs would increase by around 7% to 20% in different scenarios. The largest increase comes from annual shipping cost, which accounts for 94% of the total supply chain costs. Alternative transportation options are discussed. It is found that the Port of Dover remains the preferred Ro-Ro port, but the Lo-Lo container port of Southampton will become a better solution for cargoes with modest unit value.