The Impact of Birthspacing on Fertility

Abstract

Womens age at 1st birth and the number of years between births both vary considerably among developing countries and regions of the world. A change in either of these factors can have a profound effect not only on maternal and child health but also on ultimate fertility and population growth. In real populations increases in birthspacing generally reduce not only annual birthrates but overall family size as well. Policy-makers in the Peoples Republic of China could by changing the timing and spacing of births revamp population limits there to allow couples to have 2 children each without altering substantially the population growth targets that are based on their current 1-child family policy. Changes in birthspacing that do not affect the cohort total fertility rate (TFR) can nevertheless have profound effects on fertility and population in a particular calendar period. The short-term impact of changes in birthspacing on population growth can be quite large in actual populations. Population planners in the Peoples Republic of China could meet their targets by allowing couples to have 2 children rather than 1. The strict application of the 1-child family policy might lead to serious social problems such as female infanticide. A 2-child policy would produce a cohort TFR of 1.7 births/woman. It is likely that delaying childbearing or increasing birth intervals would result in fewer births/generation. Government programs should encourage delayed childbearing.