Peopling of the Arctic: A Computer Simulation

Abstract

The research described in this paper involved the development of a computer program designed to simulate population growth and migration patterns among hunter-gatherers, especially with respect to the Arctic. The program, which handles up to 200 discreet geographical locations, each with its own particular demographic and environmental characteristics, begins with an initial population and its vital statistics and simulates the events that occur through time. The fertility and mortality rates used in the simulations were those of modern and former Eskimo populations and other anthropological populations. The program was run under five different conditions. Condition 1 included high mortality and fertility rates and no female infanticide and resulted in extinction with little population dispersion. Condition 2, a situation of low mortality and high fertility with no infanticide, resulted in the occupation of nearly the entire Arctic in 1300 years. Condition 3 included the same mortality and fertility rates as condition 2, with the incorporation of a 30% rate of female infanticide. Under this condition, the population declined very slowly, while migration proceeded to some extent. Condition 4 represented a situation of very high fertility and mortality with 30% female infanticide and resulted in relatively rapid growth and migration rates. Condition 5, which incorporated the same high fertility and infanticide rates as condition 4 and lower mortality rates, produced very rapid population growth and migration. Key words: computer simulation, demography, Eskimos, female infanticide, fertility, paleodemography