Abstract
Western Europe is spearheading efforts to decarbonise energy-intensive industries. However, the region’s climate, population density and economic development set it at a disadvantage in generating cheap renewables. Although European governments have assumed that they will import resources like green-hydrogen derivatives to decarbonise industry in Europe, the region is likely to see several major industries relocate overseas instead. Although Europe will not experience wholesale deindustrialisation, the dislocations will still have a significant political impact. European governments will want to prop up their energy-intensive industries, but the strategic and economic rationale for doing so is weak. The region faces a tricky trilemma for energy-intensive industries, with trade-offs among industrial efficiency, industrial sustainability and industrial security – especially where governments assume that industrial security requires autonomy or local production. They can resolve the trilemma by shaping diverse global supply chains for energy-intensive goods and mitigating the impact of dislocations on local economies.
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