The Global Nuclear Detection Architecture and the Deterrence of Nuclear Terrorism

Abstract

The Global Nuclear Detection Architecture is a worldwide system for detecting illicit radiological or nuclear (R/N) material and R/N weapons. The technical and nontechnical detection capabilities of the architecture can contribute to the deterrence of nuclear terrorism by increasing the risks and costs of mounting an R/N attack. Risks include the danger of one or more encounters with elements of the architecture, uncertainties about the locations and other characteristics of detection capabilities, discovery upon encounter with detection capabilities, and attack failure upon discovery. Among the costs are the added manpower, money, materiel, time, and operational difficulties entailed by attempts to evade or defeat detection capabilities. The deterrent effect of the detection architecture—part of a broader effort to counter nuclear terrorism—warrants greater attention and emphasis.