The Fuel Situation

Abstract

The United States has an abundance of energy resources; fossil fuels (mostly coal and oil shale) adequate for centuries, fissionable nuclear fuels adequate for millenia, and solar energy that will last indefinitely. Current fuel shortages reflect a shortage of productive capacity, not the depletion of resources. Shortages can be alleviated by the development of additional mineral reserves and the construction of additional facilities for refining and transporting natural and synthetic fuels. The cost of energy, measured in constant dollars to strip away the effects of inflation, has declined as long as records have been kept, largely through economies of scale and new technology. These cost‐reducing forces are still effective. The constant‐dollar cost of environmentally acceptable clean fossil fuel (refined oil and natural gas now, followed by synthetic oil and gas later) may continue its historic downward trend for several centuries, and the cost of nuclear fuel may follow a down‐ward trend for millenia, before economies of scale and new technology are finally overcome by the effects of depletion.