The Evolution and Economic and Social Effects of the Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Transport Superiority Degree in Southern Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Transportation significantly influences economically underdeveloped arid regions, impacting economic growth and social progress. Analyzing Transport Superiority Degree (TSD) and its implications in such regions is crucial. A new arid region-specific evaluation framework addresses traditional limitations by considering indicators like route connectivity and desert interference. This article conducts an empirical study using Southern Xinjiang as a research case. It combines comprehensive evaluation methods, spatial autocorrelation methods, spatial Durbin models, and coupling coordination models to depict Transport Support Capability (TSC), Transport Access Capacity (TAC), and Transport Guarantee Capacity (TGC) at different scales in Southern Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020. The study reveals spatial patterns, evolutionary characteristics, economic impacts, and social effects of TSD at various scales. Key findings include: (1) Rapid expansion of transportation infrastructure in Southern Xinjiang. The levels of TSD at different scales have gradually increased, and spatial and temporal pattern differences are evident. At the county level, TSD forms a “core-periphery” spatial pattern centered around the Southern Xinjiang Railway, with “high-high” agglomeration areas centered around Kashgar city and “low-low” agglomeration areas centered around Qiemo County. (2) Prefectural-level TSD improvements have limited impacts on regional development, while county-level TSC, TAC, TGC, and TSD positively affect economic and social growth but also exhibit competitive effects. (3) TSD is transitioning from non-coordinated to coordinated development with economic and social progress at different scales. This research informs transportation facility evaluation in arid regions.