The Epistemic Contract: Fostering an Appropriate Level of Public Trust in Experts.

Abstract

Citizens should have an appropriate level of trust in experts—neither too low nor too high. Experts cannot guarantee accuracy in a complex world. But they can attempt to be well calibrated, meaning that they clearly communicate their confidence in their knowledge, and that confidence is lower in domains where their accuracy is likely to be lower. I review research on expert calibration, on the effects of confidence and calibration on perceived credibility, and on the role that “naive realism” plays in biasing our assessments of experts who say what we want to hear.