Abstract
How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.
Highlights
How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic such as COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) in social networks? To address this question, we consider the idealised problem of the susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) epidemic model (Kermack and McKendrick 1927) in the presence of temporary social distancing constraints placed on the members of a society.Our susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model (SIRwSD model) is understood
How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model
While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent
Summary
We run Monte Carlo simulations comparing the reach of the disease when there is no social distancing with that when social distancing measures are imposed.. Our results show that even if only a small fraction of the population is deemed essential, the reach of the epidemic is similar to that wherein there are no essential workers We emphasise that the framework of this paper considers the benefits to social distancing when it is the only policy tool available. This paper is about one such policy tool in isolation, but given its tractability, we hope that it can be incorporated into richer models
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