Effects of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality in the US

Abstract

State-mandated social distancing has emerged as one of the key tools for controlling the spread of COVID-19 around the world. In the United States, frustration over stay-at-home and social distancing orders has led some states to ease restrictions; raising questions over the efficacy of social distancing in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus disease. However, empirical evidence on the effect of social distancing on COVID-19 infection and mortality rates is non-existent. Our paper attempts to fill this gap with state-level evidence from the United States. Combining weekly infection and mortality data with a rich longitudinal socioeconomic data at the state level, we find significant reductions in infection rates as a result of social distancing. In particular, a 1% percentage point increase in social distancing decreases infections by 0.12%. On the other hand, we do not find mortality-reducing effects of social distancing. This might be because the mortality-reducing effects of social distancing take a while to appear. Our findings suggest that while social distancing helps slow the spread of the virus, it might not be enough to affect the death of those already infected.