The demise of the ABM Treaty and the militarization of outer space

Abstract

How far has the USA's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty opened the door to further militarization of space? The author argues that, while it worked reasonably well as an instrument of land-based arms control, the Treaty's narrow focus left it powerless in the face of proposals for space-based ballistic missiles. Moreover, by accepting the principle of satellite reconnaissance through its non-interference clause, it failed to safeguard against ASAT development. A more enlightened way forward than simply dropping the Treaty would be to seek a comprehensive new regime covering missile defence and the military use of space. The USA's action, however, shows that it is not interested in such an approach, which means that military conflict in outer space will become inevitable.