The combination mode of forest and SVM for power network disaster response failure identification

Abstract

The damage to power transmission and distribution equipment in different regions is inseparable from the erosion of natural and artificial disasters, affecting the power grid's regular power supply and users' typical power consumption. Therefore, research on failure risk prediction technology for power transmission and distribution equipment under different disasters has increasingly become critical to power grid reliability. Based on the combination mode of forest and Support Vector Machine (SVM), this study proposes a disaster response failure prediction model that considers the time cumulative effect of disaster elements. Based on this model, the failure degree indicators of different disaster elements are constructed by analyzing the relationship between disaster frequency and time. Then, the historical disaster data is used to calculate the index and form a training set with the monitoring data. The binary decision graph transformation method is combined with the adjacent node priority method to obtain the minimum cut set, and the SVM regression method is used to train to get the prediction model. The experimental results show that the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified through the analysis of numerical examples and comparison of various techniques. The model's accuracy is 8.63 % higher than that of the traditional disaster prediction model, and the error rate of disaster failure prediction analysis is not more than 0.01.