Abstract
The main aim of this study was to analyse fertility change in Ovamboland (North-Central Namibia) (1927–2010) and the Kavango region (North-East Namibia) (1935–1979) in Northern Namibia. According to the results, the fertility change was quite similar in both areas: fertility declined during the 1950s compared to the preceding period, 1935–1949. We can assume that the main reason for this early fertility decline was changes in the number of migrant workers (out-migration), which caused changes in both the marriage age and birth intervals. In both Ovamboland and in the Kavango region, fertility increased from the late 1950s into the early 1960s and the fertility transition started at the end of the 1970s. In both areas, the increase in fertility during thelate 1950s and early 1960s was probably due to the improved health situation. Fertility transition started at the end of the 1970s, but mortality had already started to decline before that. The main causes of this declining fertility at the end of the 1970s and during the 1980s were improved access to modern methods of contraception and probably also the increased level of education. As a result of the HIV epidemic, mortality increased in Ovamboland at the end of the 1990s and early 2000s. The declining fertility in the same period was probably linked to this increased mortality due to AIDS, while the increased fertility after 2008 is, in turn, probably linked to management of the HIV epidemic.
Highlights
Introduction and aims of the studyDemographic development in Africa, and in particular in sub-Saharan Africa, is becoming a major issue
Archives of the native administration, originally created during the period of South African rule, provide a variety of information for contextualising the research agenda and interpreting results. These administrative archives are stored at the National Archives of Namibia in Windhoek
Fertility declined in the Kavango region in the same way as in Ovamboland, when the confident intervals are taken into account (Table 1)
Summary
Introduction and aims of the studyDemographic development in Africa, and in particular in sub-Saharan Africa, is becoming a major issue. The fertility transition in Africa has been widely studied, lately by the World Bank (Canning et al 2015), which links the future of fertility transition to the economic development in Africa. Parish registers from 1925 onwards from Northern Namibia are a good source for analysing the early changes in fertility Other historical records, such as administrative and missionary records, can be used for interpreting the results. Archives of the native administration, originally created during the period of South African rule, provide a variety of information for contextualising the research agenda and interpreting results. These administrative archives are stored at the National Archives of Namibia in Windhoek. The Archives of the Finnish Evangelical Mission are stored at the National Archives of Finland in Helsinki, but microfilmed duplicates are available at the National Archives of Namibia
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