Abstract
The change in the constituency vote between successive general elections is broken down into a number of components. It is shown that there are regional geographical variations of up to 7.5 per cent of the three-party vote, that by-elections can have a major impact upon the subsequent general election vote, that there is an incumbency effect of undoubted statistical significance which is worth on average between 400 and 500 votes to the incumbent (a potential swing of 800 to 1,000 votes on retirement). The incumbency effect is found to be considerably greater for Labour incumbents than for Conservative incumbents. There is also a gender effect of probable statistical significance, which takes the form of an average loss of between 125 and 250 votes by a female candidate (a potential swing of between 250 and 500 votes)
Published Version
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