Is California's Top Two Primary Bad for Women Candidates?

Abstract

Is California’s Top Two Primary Bad for Women Candidates? Katie Merrill Since the Top Two was first used in the elections of 2012, both academics and practitioners have been asking, “Has the Top Two system changed anything? Has it resulted in less partisan- ship in the legislature? Are more moderate candidates getting elected?” The answer after the 2012 and 2014 cycles has been a resounding TBD—To Be Determined. The academic consensus so far is that nothing has really changed, but that two cycles is too soon to tell. And perhaps, if there were to be real change, it would take the better part of the decade before that emerged. Now that we have had our second round of Top Two results, one important issue that has not yet been explored is the impact on women candidates. Over the two elections since the Top Two primary has been in place, the number of women in the California Legislature has been trending downward, from 28.3 percent to 25.8 percent, and fewer general election congressional candi- dates are women. There were only 19 female general election congressional candidates in 2014, the lowest number since 1998. Could it be that one unintended consequence of the Top Two is that women candidates are being disadvantaged by the new system? There is some evidence that this is a line of inquiry that should be pursued over the next few cycles. The 2014 race in Assembly District 15, which includes Berkeley and portions of West Contra Costa County, provides an interesting example in which the Top Two may have disadvantaged a female candidate. In the June primary, Elizabeth Echols, a Democrat who had worked for Vice President Al Gore and the Obama administration, was the top vote-getter out of eight candidates. The result was not particularly surprising given that the district had been represented by three different female Assemblymembers over 18 years. In second place, seven points behind Echols, was Tony Thurmond, also a Democrat, who had served on the Richmond City Council and the West Contra Costa School District Board. The one Republican in the primary, Rich Kinney, fin- ished fourth. In the traditional closed primary process (and even in the “blanket” primary that California had for a few years in the late 1990s), Echols, as the top Democrat, and Kinney, the Republican, would have advanced to the general election. Given the 8–1 Democratic registration advantage in this district, Echols would be the current Assemblymember. But under the Top Two system, Echols and fellow Democrat Thurmond advanced to the gen- eral election. In that Democrat-on-Democrat election, Thurmond soundly defeated Echols, de- spite her endorsement from the Democratic Party, the retiring female Assemblymember, and the former female Assemblymember before her. What happened in the general election that resulted in the female candidate losing after placing first in the primary? The biggest factor seemed to be the $600,000 that was spent by business interests to bolster Thurmond’s campaign. If Echols had been running against a Republican in the general election, it is unlikely that these interests would