The battle for Central: ethnicity, urbanization and citizenship in Kenya’s 2022 general elections

Abstract

ABSTRACT In Kenya’s 2022 general elections, presidential candidate William Ruto did something unusual – he dominated the vote in the heartlands of one of his main political rivals, President Uhuru Kenyatta. In turn, Ruto’s ability to win power by mobilizing support outside of his own Kalenjin community has led to speculation that the political power of ethnicity is waning. Drawing on surveys, economic and demographic analysis and interviews during the campaign in Central Kenya – a predominantly Kikuyu area and Kenyatta’s supposed political homeland – we cast doubt on this argument. Evidence from the campaign trail suggests that while structural changes within Kenyan society, including the emergence of a more urban, educated and critical electorate, played an important role in Ruto’s electoral success, it was also underpinned by historic ethnic allegiances, inter-group prejudice, and the use of ethnically-rooted clientelist strategies to build political networks. In particular, past campaigns saw Odinga depicted as an unsuitable leader based on his history, personality, and Luo ethnicity, generating formidable barriers to winning support. The implications of this argument extend beyond our understanding of Kenya to recent debates about the impact of urbanization and political socialization on political subjectivities and behaviour in Africa.