The Atlantic forest is a potentially climatic suitable habitat for four Neotropical Myrtaceae species through time

Abstract

Myrtaceae is one of the most species-rich botanical families and is a critical floristic component in regions with high diversity, such as the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado. In the Neotropical region, Myrteae is the main tribe of Myrtaceae and includes the most diverse genera Eugenia, Myrcia, Psidium, Myrceugenia, and Campomanesia. Here, we investigated the climatic suitability selected Myrteae species - Campomanesia guazumifolia, C. xanthocarpa, Eugenia pyriformis, and Psidium cattleyanum - across South America. This study spans the present day, three historical periods, and two future climate change scenarios. Our modeling analysis (ENSEMBLE) included environmental variables applied at the times evaluated. Our results suggest that temperature seasonality and precipitation in the driest month were the variables that most influenced climate suitability in the species. The Atlantic Forest lato sensu is a potentially climate suitable habitat for these four species over time, which matches the center of diversification and richness of Myrtaceae, in regions where they coexist and share habitats sympatrically. Historical glaciation events have influenced the retraction and expansion of species distribution, ultimately contributing to their current coexistence in select neotropical ecoregions. Our projections for the future indicate climate suitable habitats in areas similar to present models despite the different effects of climate change. The Atlantic Forest is the key to maintaining Myrteae biodiversity over time. Therefore, it is necessary to combine other approaches (e.g., evolutionary, ecological, and genetic studies) to deeply understand the evolutionary history of this region, its protection, and the maintenance of the biodiversity it harbors.