The Amur region volumes housing theoretical substantiation and forecasting

Abstract

The article substantiates the need to determine the target volumes of housing construction in the Amur Region, taking into account the investment development attractiveness, the regional authorities’ policy, the land resources’ availability, engineering networks, the availability of building materials under various scenarios of economic development. The work involves a medium-term forecasting model for the regional housing market development with a 3-year planning horizon. The problem in obtaining quantitative estimates of market development (the price ratio, housing demand and supply) when changing the planned volume of housing commissioning and macroeconomic indicators has been solved. The data obtained as a result of the study can be used in developing the socio-economic policy of the Federation subject, forming a regional budget for the planning period, developing and implementing programs to provide affordable and comfortable housing for the population and the housing development in the region. The forecasting results on the Rostov Region and the Stavropol Territory examples were tested by the authors and reported in the framework of the International Scientific and Technical Conferences “Construction and Architecture: Theory and Practice of Industry Development” (CATPID-2018, October 8-12, 2018, Nalchik) and “Construction and architecture: theory and practice of innovative development” (CATPID-2019, October 1-5, 2019, Kislovodsk).