The ability of decline in intrinsic capacity to indicate the risk of mortality in older adults: A meta-analysis

Abstract

ObjectiveTo evaluate the ability of decline in intrinsic capacity to indicate the risk of mortality in older adults. DesignMeta-analysis. MethodsPubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, Wanfang Database, CNKI, VIP, and CBM were searched for relevant studies published from inception to October 31, 2023. Stata17.0 software was used to perform the meta-analysis. A random effects model was used to pool the results of the risk of mortality (as hazard ratios, HRs) in older adults and decline in intrinsic capacity. The Newcastle Ottawa Scale was used to evaluate the quality of studies. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was used to determine the confidence in the estimated effect of pooled outcomes. ResultsTwelve studies, with a total of 38,531 participants, were included in this meta-analysis. The findings show that older adults with intrinsic capacity decline have a higher risk of mortality (HR = 1.11, 95 % CI 1.08–1.14, I2 = 95.9 %, P<0.001) than older adults with normal intrinsic capacity. The pooled HR estimates for the locomotion, vitality, and cognitive dimensions of intrinsic capacity in the prediction of mortality were 0.89 (HR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.83–0.96, I2 = 41.3 %, P = 0.146), 0.76 (HR = 0.98, 95 % CI 0.59–0.97, I2 = 60.8 %, P = 0.078), and 0.99 (HR = 0.99, 95 % CI 0.98–1.00, I2 = 0.0 %, P = 0.664), respectively. The pooled HR estimates of the psychological dimension to predict mortality were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). GRADE evaluations of outcome indicators were of moderate confidence. ConclusionsDecline in intrinsic capacity is a significant predictor of mortality. Locomotion, vitality, and cognition dimensions can all predict mortality. Clinical personnel should early assess the intrinsic capacity of older adults, focusing on changes in the dimensions of locomotion and vitality, to identify the risk of mortality, avoid adverse health outcomes, and improve the quality of life of older adults.Review protocol registered in PROSPERO: CRD42023481246