Tesla under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Short-term Perspective Based on Counterfactual Framework

Abstract

The ARIMA model has found extensive applications across various domains, including financial time series analysis, weather forecasting, epidemiological forecasting, and market research. Despite its versatility, little attention has been paid to the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict on Tesla Motors. Given the significant influence of Tesla, as a major player in the electric drive vehicle industry, on the global energy landscape, this study aims to utilize the ARIMA model to examine the effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Tesla's sales volume and stock price. The findings of this study may contribute towards mitigating global warming and inspire investment in sustainable energy solutions, including electric vehicles and energy storage issues. Additionally, this study will highlight Tesla's contribution to the global energy landscape and provide a quantitative analysis of investors' preferences for Tesla. Results indicate that the Russia-Ukraine war caused a significant short-term impact on Tesla's stock price. A counterfactual framework was used to compare control and actual sets, revealing a disparity between ideal predictions and the real world. However, Tesla's stock price rebounded in the second month of the war, signifying that this will not significantly affect Tesla's future development. The study also suggests that the disruption of the global supply chain caused by the war and Russia's energy export restrictions resulted in a sharp increase in global oil prices, thereby escalating the cost of gasoline vehicles and leading to a considerable surge in Tesla's sales.