TENDENCIES AND PREDICTION OF PRICES OF INDUSTRIAL CROPS IN SERBIA

Abstract

The research in this paper deals with the prices of the most important industrial crops in Serbia – soybean, sunflower, sugarbeet, rapeseed and tobacco. The main aim of the research was to perform aquantitative analysisto determine the trends in the prices and to predict the trends for the following period. The analysis was based on the average annual prices for the period 2005-2019. The quantitative analysis was performed by using methods of descriptive statistics and the average annual rate of change to discover the trendsfor the analyzed period and to predict the trends for the following five years (2020-2024). The average annual price of soybean was 311.86 EUR/t. The price ranged between 189 and 527 EUR/t. The annual change rate of soybean price in Serbia in the analyzed period was 2.76%. The average annual price of sunflower was 264.78 EUR/t. The price ranged between 163 and 455 EUR/t. The annual change rate of sunflower price in Serbia was 2.13%. The average annual price of sugarbeet was 31.60 EUR/t. The price ranged between 24.36 and 40.31 EUR/t. The annual change rate of sugar beet price was 1.85 %. The average annual price of rapeseed was 299.58 EUR/t. The price ranged between 145 and 447 EUR/t. The annual change rate was 5.84%. The average annual price of tobacco was 1,749 EUR/t. The price ranged between 1,068 and 2,159 EUR/t. The annual change rate of tobacco price in Serbia was 3.90%.The predictions show that the expected prices for the industrial crops in 2024 in Serbia will be as follows: soybean 337, sunflower 266, sugar beet 35.33, rapeseed 425 and tobacco 2,208 EUR/t. Keywords: industrial crops, soybean, sunflower, sugarbeet, rapeseed, tobacco, prices prediction, Serbia.