Temporal dynamics and extreme events in solar, wind, and wave energy complementarity: Insights from the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone

Abstract

The Polish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Baltic Sea is an area of increasing strategic importance for Poland's pursuit of renewable energy, especially offshore wind. This research investigates the complementarity among solar, wind, and wave energy resources within the Polish EEZ to examine these energy sources' temporal dynamics, correlations, and extremes. The primary data source corresponds to a 31-year hourly time series dataset from the ERA5 reanalysis, whose reliability was evaluated through performance metrics. The results from complementarity metrics indicate varying levels of association among the three variable renewable energy resources (VRES) in the EEZ, spanning from weak similarity to weak complementarity. The findings of this research indicate that blackouts are most probable at offshore locations during winter and autumn for renewable power systems integrating wind and solar energy, with over 70 % of occurrences within these seasons. The investigation of extreme events highlights critical elements when evaluating VRES and their complementarity. This understanding aids in effectively planning and managing renewable energy systems, ensuring resilience and reliability under challenging weather conditions. Furthermore, while the complementarity may be consistent throughout the entire Polish EEZ, the feasibility and cost of implementing hybrid power systems can significantly vary between locations.