Abstract
For the purpose of the sustainable development in the global semiconductor industry, emerging three-dimensional integrated circuit (3DIC) integration technologies have demonstrated their importance as potential candidates for extending the lifespan of Moore’s Law. This study aimed to explore a technology selection process involving a three-stage fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach to facilitate the effective assessment of emerging 3DIC integration technologies. The fuzzy Delphi method was first used to determine the important criteria. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) was then adopted to derive the weights of the criteria. The fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS) was finally deployed to rate the alternatives. Empirical results indicate that market potential, time-to-market, and heterogeneous integration are the top three decision criteria for the selection of 3DIC integration technologies. Furthermore, 2.5D through-silicon interposer (TSI) is of primary interest to the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, followed by 3DIC through-silicon via (TSV), 3D packaging, and 3D silicon TSV (Si TSV). The proposed three-stage fuzzy decision model may potentially assist industry practitioners and government policy-makers in directing research and development investments and allocating resources more strategically.
Highlights
The effective selection and investment in 3DIC integration technologies under strategic planning help the Taiwanese semiconductor industry stay competitive in the global market
Effective evaluation and selection of emerging 3DIC integration technologies under strategic planning help the Taiwanese semiconductor industry stay competitive in the global market
An increasing number of studies have used either a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) method or a hybrid fuzzy MCDM approach for selecting appropriate emerging technologies because they could deal with both multiple criteria issues and the linguistic ambiguity of experts’ judgments
Summary
After six years since the introduction of the first commercial planar transistor in 1959, Moore’s Law has been recognized as a golden rule guiding the technological evolution of the semiconductor industry [1]. For the purpose of the sustainable development in the global semiconductor industry, emerging three-dimensional integrated circuit (3DIC) integration technologies have demonstrated their importance as potential candidates for extending the lifespan of Moore’s Law [3]. The semiconductor industry has disclosed several alternative 3DIC integration technologies so far, but the prioritization and selection of optimal alternatives among these emerging technologies for Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing firms remain undetermined. Effective evaluation and selection of 3DIC integration technologies under resource constraints are critical to the overall success of Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing firms. FFuurrtthheerrmmoorree,, nnoonnee ooff tthhee rreesseeaarrcchh ccoonndduucctteedd ssoo ffaarr hhaass uusseedd tthhee ffuuzzzzyy MMCCDDMM ttoo eevvaalluuaattee 33DDIICC iinntteeggrraattiioonn tteecchhnnoollooggiieess. TThhee ffuuzzzzyy AAHHPP iiss tthheenn aaddoopptteedd ttoo ddeerriivvee tthhee wweeiigghhttss ooff tthhee ccrriitteerriiaa ffoorr iinnvveessttiiggaattiinngg tthheemm.
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