Techno-economic analysis of lithium-ion battery price reduction considering carbon footprint based on life cycle assessment

Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) play a crucial role in driving energy transitions, particularly in electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems. Forecasting LIB prices has received significant attention due to the tightening of raw material markets. Additionally, the implementation of carbon pricing policies has highlighted the need to incorporate the carbon footprint of LIBs in price evaluation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the carbon footprint, pricing trajectories, and forthcoming carbon pricing ramifications associated with LIBs. Firstly, the findings derived from the life-cycle carbon footprint assessment indicate that the global production volume-weighted average carbon footprint of EV battery packs spans 49.2–81.1 kgCO2eq/kWh, depending on the chosen end-of-life treatment. Strategic end-of-life selections, aligned with battery chemical composition, can diminish the carbon footprint by up to 46% relative to improper disposal methods. Notably, direct cathode recycling of NCA and NMC622 batteries exhibits superior environmental performance. Secondly, techno-economic analysis predicts that the mean price of EV battery packs with diverse chemical compositions will decline to $75.1/kWh by 2030, factoring in the compound annual growth rate of critical raw material prices over the past decade. LFP batteries emerge as the top economic performers. Lastly, the results reveal that monetizing a battery's carbon footprint may offset battery price reductions through learning effects. This underscores the imperative of effective recycling for curtailing the carbon footprint and ensuring the enduring economic and environmental competitiveness of LIBs.