Tasarruf ve Enflasyon İlişkisi Türkiye İçin Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi

Abstract

Empirical studies on the effect of savings and inflation on the country's economies, the direction and causality of this effect are increasing day by day. In this study, the relationship between savings and inflation is discussed in the case of Turkey. The stability of the two series studied was investigated by analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that both series are stationary in their first differences. In the later analysis, short and long term relationships were discussed. According to the results obtained, there is a statistically significant relationship between savings and inflation both in the short run and the long run. While the increase in inflation increases the savings in the short term, an increase in inflation decreases the savings in the long term. To determine the causality relationship between the series, the Granger causality test was applied with Toda Yamamoto approach. As a result, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship with 10% significance level from saving to inflation.