Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model

Abstract

As greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction is a long-term challenge for any economy, visualizing the kinds of measures an economy would have to adopt in order to reach its GHG reduction targets. Therefore, the goal of this study is to provide results and directions for future development of the main economic sectors in Taiwan, through analyzing nine long-term (2050) carbon reduction pathways from the technical perspectives.This study utilized the MARKAL energy engineering model to simulate the effects of adopting a combination of technology and tax measures under the various carbon reduction targets and low-carbon development scenarios up to 2050 in Taiwan. The main economic sectors studied include the electricity, industry, household and service, and transportation sectors, while Taiwan’s carbon emission reduction targets for 2050 are set as carbon emissions reduced to 50–100% of 2000 levels, or 79–89% below the BAU levels. The study results show that if Taiwan’s GDP grows with an annual rate of 3% from 2013 to 2055, and with only limited low/no carbon energy development in place, all sectors in Taiwan need to decrease their energy intensities below the BAU scenario by 48% to 53%, in order for Taiwan to achieve its carbon reduction targets for 2050.However, for all sectors to take up energy saving measures and CCS technologies to reduce energy demand and energy intensity, Taiwan will have to quickly adopt new climate legislation (e.g. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act) and introduce carbon-reduction incentives (e.g., carbon tax). The study results are expected to provide important information for the policy makers in developing Taiwan’s long-term low carbon development pathways.