Feasibility Study of China’s Carbon Tax System under the Carbon Neutrality Target—Based on the CGE Model

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In order to cope with the climate problem of global warming and respond to the call of the United Nations to reduce carbon emissions, China has put the goals of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 forward and has promoted the transformation and upgrading of the economic development mode and the green, low-carbon development path. In international practice, various countries have widely adopted the carbon trading market and tax policy as effective carbon emission reduction mechanisms and tools. In 2012, China implemented a carbon trading pilot project and established a national unified carbon trading market in 2021 based on accumulated experience, but the carbon tax has not yet been introduced. According to the international carbon tax practice and the current situation in China, the introduction of the carbon tax is conducive to the establishment of a sound carbon emission reduction system and the promotion of green and low-carbon development from the macro-control level. In this paper, we analyzed the necessity and theoretical research of carbon tax policy in China and explored the feasibility of a carbon tax in China by combining the internationally advanced carbon tax practice. By establishing a CGE model at the carbon-tax level and using the social accounting matrix (SAM) as the database, we simulated the impact of implementing carbon tax policies under different carbon tax prices on China’s environmental and economic benefits and whether the double-dividend effect of a carbon tax can be effectively realized. The results show that the carbon tax will help reduce carbon emissions and significantly affect carbon reduction. However, in the short term, it has a negative effect on economic development. Accordingly, it is suggested that a scientific carbon tax system should be established according to national conditions, and a carbon tax should be introduced at a lower carbon tax price. The carbon tax should be supplemented by carbon tax subsidies to ensure effective carbon emission reduction so as to alleviate the inhibiting effect on economic development. At the same time, the compound carbon emission reduction mechanism of carbon trading and tax should be improved to lay the institutional foundation for the early realization of the carbon neutrality target.