Institutionalizing a greenhouse gas emission reduction target at Yale

Problem: Basing local climate action plans on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories has become standard practice for communities that want to address the problem of climate change. Communities use GHG emissions inventories to develop policy despite the fact that there has been little theoretical work on the implications of the assumptions embedded within them. Purpose: We identify elements and assumptions in emissions inventories that have important policy implications for climate action plan formulation, aiming to help planners make informed, defensible choices, and to refine future GHG emissions inventory protocols and climate action planning methods. Methods: We conducted a content analysis of 30 city climate action plans selected as a stratified random sample. We collected data on 70 different factors and used summary and trend statements, typologies, and descriptive statistics to link our findings to our research questions. Results and conclusions: Climate action plans obviously vary in many details, but most contain all of the core GHG emissions elements suggested in common protocols. We found GHG emissions inventories to be technically accurate but found their reduction targets to fall short of international targets. We also found exogenous change and uncertainty to be unaccounted for in emissions forecasts and reduction targets. The plans generally do a poor job of linking mitigation actions to reduction targets. Takeaway for practice: GHG emissions inventories supporting climate action planning are reasonably standardized, but documentation of data and assumptions should be improved and GHG reduction targets should be justified. The effect of future changes that are beyond the direct control of the community plan should be accounted for in GHG emissions forecasts and reduction targets. Rapid anticipated population growth should be acknowledged and taken into account, both in GHG emissions forecasts and in setting reduction targets. Effects of mitigation may be difficult to predict reliably, yet can be partly offset by effective monitoring that evaluates progress and changes course when necessary. Research support: None.

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

The Korean government has recently established national and sectoral mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Specifically, the country must reduce its total GHG emissions by 30% compared to business-as-usual (BAU) by 2020. This study has two main purposes. First, the study aims to measure the economic impacts of pursuing and achieving the government’s GHG reduction targets. Second, it aims to estimate each major policy’s potential GHG emission reductions in the various sectors. We use the computable general equilibrium model and develop three scenarios to examine the economic and environmental impacts of Korea’s green growth policies – a baseline scenario wherein the national economy proceeds without green growth policies; scenario A, wherein the government imposes national and sectoral emission reduction targets without adopting green technologies; and scenario B, wherein the government adopts policy and technology as renewable portfolio standard and carbon capture and storage. The simulation results from scenario A indicate that the government’s mid-term targets could pose a significant challenge to Korea’s national economy. In addition, the results from scenario B indicate that low-carbon green policy and technology will play an important role in reducing GHG emissions.

The UK and Ireland both have large greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD). The ESD covers non-emission trading sector (Non-ETS) emissions, of which agriculture is an important component, representing 44% of the non-ETS emissions for Ireland. In the UK this figure is lower, at 16%, but the composition varies significantly between the constituent countries. Though the reductions targets and means of achieving them differ, reductions in agricultural emissions will be necessary for both the UK and Ireland, and on-going negotiations setting reductions targets for 2030 are likely to result in even stricter limits for emissions from the non ETS sector. This paper examines the implications of achievement of possible 2020 and 2030 GHG reductions targets in the agriculture sector for the UK and Ireland. The paper considers the achievability of the reduction targets based on technical means alone, suggesting that under current carbon budgets the UK aims to make sufficient agricultural emissions reductions, while Ireland will require a reduction in agricultural activity or alternative policy interventions. The implications for food production in the UK and Ireland and associated trade are then assessed.

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

Greenhouse gas emission has serious impacts on human societies, ecosystems and economies as a result of global climate change. In response to this challenge, the global community has set greenhouse gas reduction targets aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). In terms of emission reduction technology, CO2 geological storage technology is considered to be an important and potential solution. The wide application of CO2 geological storage technology can help achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets and slow down the greenhouse effect of the earth. The research will explore the role of CO2 geological storage technologies for global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Through extensive collection of relevant information on CO2 geological storage technology around the world, comprehensive research and analysis of the principle, application cases, limiting challenges and environmental impact of this technology, to evaluate the prospects and prospects of CO2 geological storage technology in achieving global emission reduction goals challenge. The study found that the geological storage of CO2 can promote the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions, and its long-term effect will be more obvious, and the advantages will be more obvious with the improvement of technology and the cooperation between international governments.

Integrating greenhouse gas reduction and waste policy targets to identify optimal waste treatment configurations via Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis

본 연구의 목적은 실행 가능한 온실가스 감축목표를 설정하기 위해 가능한 온실가스의 감축잠재량을 산정하기 위한 것이다. 2020년 BAU 대비 온실가스 감축목표가 30%로 설정되어있기 때문에 우리나라는 온실가스 의무감축국이 아니다. 그러나 온실가스 총 배출량 세계 9위(2009년 기준)로 높고, 세계 15위 경제규모를 갖추고 있어 2020년 온실가스 의무감축국에 편입될 가능성이 커지고 있다. 이를 대비한 각 지자체의 역할이 중요해지고 있으며, 지자체는 현실적으로 온실가스 감축목표 설정을 하는 데 노력해야 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 총 3단계로 진행되었다. 첫째, 온실가스 감축목표와 감축잠재량, 온실가스 감축목표 설정 방법에 대한 이론적 고찰을 하였다. 둘째, 시나리오 기법을 이용하여 시나리오 별로 감축목표를 설정하였다. 셋째, 각 시나리오의 감축목표별로 감축기법의 적용비율을 설정하여 감축잠재량을 산정하였다. 이러한 결과로 본 연구는 각 시나리오에 따른 감축기법의 적용비율을 적용하여 감축잠재량을 산정하였다.This study intends to estimate reduction potential using scenarios to set a practical target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. Since South Korea does not have a mandatory obligation to reduce GHG emissions, its target for GHG reduction is set at 30% of that of BAU in 2020. However, South Korea is increasingly likely to be obliged to reduce its emissions according to 2020 GHG emission target, and thus the local governments should make efforts to set its own realistic reduction target as their roles become more important. This study has proceeded in three stages as follows. First, it reviewed the literature about GHG reduction target, GHG reduction potential, and the relevant methodology for setting GHG emission reduction target. Second, reduction targets were set up by scenario. Third, reduction potential was estimated by setting the application rate of reduction technique for each of the scenarios on a practical target for GHG emission reduction.

A bi-level model for GHG emission charge based on a continuous distribution of travelers’ value of time (VOT)

While the United States has not established federal regulations for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, many US states have adopted their own standards and guidelines. In this study we examine state adoption of targets for GHG reductions during the ten-year period of 1998-2008, and identify factors that explain variation in target adoption. Potential influences are drawn from research from the public policy formulation and diffusion literature, and from studies specific to climate policy adoption. Potential influences on GHG reduction efforts among US states include socioeconomic attributes of residents, political and ideological orientations of citizens and state government, interest group activities, environmental pressures, and proximity to other states that have adopted GHG reduction targets. The findings of the multinomial logistic regression analysis indicate that states are more likely to adopt GHG reduction targets if they share a border with another state with a similar climate program and if their citizens are more ideologically liberal. Other factors including socioeconomic resources and interest group activities were not found to be associated with policy adoption. The findings yield insights into the conditions under which states are more likely to take action to reduce GHG's, and are relevant both to state policy makers and residents with an interest in climate planning, and for researchers attempting to estimate future greenhouse gas reduction scenarios.

Background and objective: Carbon neutrality must be achieved across societal sectors through carbon neutral policies. Therefore, local governments, which realize the actual greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, must develop GHG reduction strategies. This study aims to present information on the GHG reduction of the building sector (BS) at the local government level, for the carbon neutrality by 2050 (CN).Methods: The gross floor area (GFA) of all buildings and the total floor area of household (HBs), business (BBs), and public buildings (PBs) and by 2050 were predicted using building and demographic information from Jeollanam-do. Buildings were classified as over or under 10 years old. GHG emissions projection by 2050 were combined the GFA prediction results with public information on building energy consumption (BEC). After adjusting the nationwide CN goal for the BS in Jeollanam-do, the pathways for two scenarios were to estimate GHG reduction.Results: HBs showed the steepest increase in GFA, while BBs and PBs showed a very modest increase. About 30% of HBs and BBs were under 10 years and about 70% were over 10 years. The HB's GHG emissions increased remarkably, reflecting the GFA results, while the emissions of BBs and PBs didn't raised much. GHG reduction targets by 2030 were calculated as 1.4, 0.7, and 0.35 million TOE for HBs, BBs, and PBs, respectively. Reduction Scenario 1 shows a straight-line path with a negative slope from 2023. Reduction Scenario 2 shows an increase in emissions after 2023, which begins to decrease from 2028, falling with a curved steep slope until 2035, followed by a very modest decline until 2050.Conclusion: This study calculated GHG emissions from the BS by 2050 using the latest information on BEC and GHG calculation guidelines. The method in this study helps establish regional/local GHG reduction targets, setting scenarios, and estimating GHG reduction.

The power generation sector is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in this sector is therefore of crucial importance. The government has recently released its core energy policy objectives: elimination of coal-fired power generation, phase-out of nuclear plants, and promotion of renewable energy sources. This energy policy should be consistent with the national climate change response policy. This paper analyzed the optimum power generation structure based on the South Korean government’s energy policy and climate change policy and then analyzed the optimum power generation structure if the greenhouse gas reduction and renewable energy targets were different. Seven scenarios with different 2030 greenhouse gas reduction and renewable energy generation targets were investigated. The scenario analysis shows that it is difficult to reduce dependence on coal power generation if the South Korean government’s current energy and climate change policies are maintained. The current greenhouse gas reduction target level is insufficient to be a driving force for energy transition, but dependence on coal power generation can be reduced by applying a deeper level of greenhouse gas reduction (e.g. 50% reduction compared to BAU). To achieve the energy transition planned by the South Korean government, it would be necessary to set a target for greenhouse gas reduction that is deeper than the current plan. The results of this study analyzing the optimal power configuration for 2030 in light of South Korea’s energy and climate change policies are expected to contribute to the South Korean government’s establishment of policies in the future.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state’s climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125–400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state's climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125-400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.

The 2006 California Global Warming Solutions Act calls for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Meeting this target will require action from all sectors of the California economy, including industry. The industrial sector consumes 25% of the energy used and emits 28% of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) produced in the state. Many countries around the world have national-level GHG reduction or energy-efficiency targets, and comprehensive programs focused on implementation of energy efficiency and GHG emissions mitigation measures in the industrial sector are essential for achieving their goals. A combination of targets and industry-focused supporting programs has led to significant investments in energy efficiency as well as reductions in GHG emissions within the industrial sectors in these countries. This project has identified program and policies that have effectively targeted the industrial sector in other countries to achieve real energy and CO{sub 2} savings. Programs in Ireland, France, The Netherlands, Denmark, and the UK were chosen for detailed review. Based on the international experience documented in this report, it is recommended that companies in California's industrial sector be engaged in a program to provide them with support to meet the requirements of AB32, The Global Warming Solution Act. As shown in this review, structured programs that engage industry, require members to evaluate their potential efficiency measures, plan how to meet efficiency or emissions reduction goals, and provide support in achieving the goals, can be quite effective at assisting companies to achieve energy efficiency levels beyond those that can be expected to be achieved autonomously.