Abstract
The notion of systemic risks denominates the danger of destruction of a whole system by the mechanisms of nonlinear interactions between its agents in combination with circular causality between the systems elementary dynamic processes and the macroscopic structures generated by them. An extensive body of empirical evidence demonstrates a fundamental homomorphism among systemic risks in all domains, from the systems of nature over those of technology up to society. This homomorphism, based on complexity science, allows to formulate cornerstones of a scientific theory resulting in several governance strategies, associated with policy implications, be it to protect ecosystems, technical infrastructure or, last not least, avoid undesired transformation processes in societies. The approach is exemplified here for the systemic risks associated with modern migration phenomena that has direct impact on sustainable development.
Highlights
The notion of systemic risks denominates the danger of destruction of a whole system by the mechanisms of nonlinear interactions between its agents in combination with circular causality between the systems elementary dynamic processes and the macroscopic structures generated by them
An extensive body of empirical evidence demonstrates a fundamental homomorphism among systemic risks in all domains, from the systems of nature over those of technology up to society. This homomorphism, based on complexity science, allows to formulate cornerstones of a scientific theory resulting in several governance strategies, associated with policy implications, be it to protect ecosystems, technical infrastructure or, last not least, avoid undesired transformation processes in societies
The approach is exemplified here for the systemic risks associated with modern migration phenomena that has direct impact on sustainable development
Summary
A more thorough understanding of systemic risks beyond phenomenological analogies is obtained by studying the structure generation processes of simple model systems such as the generation of laser light [8], or the emergence of chemical patterns [9]. Systemic risks emerge out of unstable system states These are generated when the interactions between elementary agents are nonlinear so that small causes may lead to unexpectedly large effects in combination with external or internal stress parameters surpassing a threshold. Such states are characterized by a high sensitivity with respect to external and internal perturbations which is addressed by the well-known butterfly effect. Complex systems have emergent properties, which means that they can generate structures by self- organization, i.e. without the impact of an external ruler These structures and the associated systemic risks are coordinated mass phenomena which owe their generation to the interactions between the agents. We here discuss exemplarily some conclusions for the systemic risks associated with modern mass migration and the associated challenges for societal stability
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