System Structure–Based Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Using Remote Sensing and Field Experiment Data

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With the impacts of climate change and human activities, agricultural drought disaster losses have increased remarkably. Drought disaster risk assessment is a prerequisite for formulating disaster reduction strategies and ensuring food security. However, drought disaster risk is a complex system, and quantitative assessment methods reflecting the risk formation mechanism are still rarely reported. This study presented a chain transmission system structure of drought disaster risk, which meant that drought disaster loss risk R was derived from drought hazard H by the transformation of drought disaster vulnerability V. Based on this point, firstly, a drought hazard curve between drought intensity and drought frequency was established using remote sensing data and the copula function. Then, a crop loss calculation approach under various drought events and drought resistance capacity scenarios was achieved by two-season field experiments and the AquaCrop model. Finally, a loss risk curve cluster of “drought frequency–drought resistance capacity–yield loss rate” was proposed by the composition of the above two quantitative relationships. The results of the case study for summer maize in Bengbu City indicated that the average yield loss rate under 19 droughts occurring during the growth period of maize from 1982 to 2017 was 24.51%. High risk happened in 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, and 2004, with the largest loss rate in 2001, up to 65.58%. Overall, droughts with a return period less than two years occurred frequently during the growth period of summer maize in Bengbu, though the loss risk was still controllable. In conclusion, the results suggest that the loss risk curve provides a new effective method of drought disaster risk quantitative assessment from a physical mechanism perspective, which lays a scientific foundation for decision-making in risk management.