Risk assessment of drought disaster in typical area of corn cultivation in China

Abstract

This study assesses the risk of corn drought disaster in China under current climate conditions and builds a predictable relationship between drought disaster risk and yield losses. Two regions, Jilin and Henan, have been selected to represent two typical areas of corn cultivation. Risk is assessed from the aspects of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard presented as drought frequency and intensity. The sensitivity of corn to droughts that happened in different corn-growing stages and regional irrigation ability are used to reflect vulnerability. The results show that drought hazard and sensitivity in Jilin are much more serious than Henan, and irrigation ability is better in Henan. As a result, the drought disaster risk in Jilin is high; corn faces severe drought stress. The average corn yield loss rates during 1978–2010 in Jilin and Henan were 9.94 and 6.91 %, respectively. The correlation between corn yield losses and drought disaster risk is significant (r = 0.711). The results can help to guide future agriculture planning and drought adaptation polices.