Abstract
Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters.
Highlights
Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, which cause a large amount of economic loss
The yearly areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data from 1978 to 2012 were collected
Where P is the probability of the portfolio loss, ΔX is the loss of portfolio in the holding period, and VaR is the value at risk under confidence level α
Summary
Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, which cause a large amount of economic loss. Huang et al [2] suggested that the natural disaster risk is the future adverse event scenario of natural event as the main cause. With the coming of 21st century, drought disaster risk was considered the potential adverse effects of drought as a product of the frequency of drought, the spatial extent of damage caused by drought, and regional production level of crops from the viewpoints of climatology, disaster science, economics, environmental science, risk assessment, and so on [8], (Zhang et al 2004); [9]. Drought disaster risk is considered the probability in the future adverse senior of crop losses, and risk assessment in five provinces (Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Guangdong) is discussed. The median of number of hectares with damage of C1, C2, and C3 is 0.20, 0.55, and 0.90, respectively
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