System approach: climate change, glacier melt and development planning of the himalayan region

Abstract

Experience over the last decade has demonstrated a gradual rise in global temperatures, which coupled with the unpredictable precipitation patterns (rainfall & Snow/ glacier melt are considered as important hydrologic process in the Himalayan basins), are expected to seriously affect the melt characteristics and further increase pressure on available water resources (both quantity and quality). The situation is being exacerbated intensified by the increasing water demands from agriculture, industry and rising population. However, current investigations reveal that there is a lack of a general framework for assessment. The major responsibility of the planning community is to adopt rational planning approach addressing the complexity of the system, yet it is appearing that the models used at various stages are not well developed to keep the same pace. This demands the acknowledgment and a better understanding of the dynamic inter-linkage and interdependence of the complex systems and sub-systems (namely physical, social, economic, ecology, environment, infrastructure, and institutional subsystems) using system dynamics technique. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for assessing the climate change and its impact on a region by demonstrating the inadequacy of sectoral and silobased planning approaches to address the complex sustainable development challenges whose interdependencies and inter-linkages transcend individual sectors and administrative borders. Further, this paper attempts to present the review of research done on the use of an integrated approach by using system dynamics technique in the context of evolving development plans. It concludes with extending the knowledge to support climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions to achieve sustainable development at the regional scale.