Abstract

AbstractRampant deforestation, industrialization, modernization, population explosion, and overexploitation of natural resources have increased the intensity of climate change. Global climate change is evidenced by a continuous rise in temperature, which in the last century, rose to 0.6°C. Nevertheless, this temperature rise is also evidenced in the Himalayas, more so than the global average (Shrestha and Aryal, Reg Environ Chang 11:65–77, 2011). Climate change has far-reaching impacts on all forms of life and ecosystems, including mountain systems. There are several ways to interpret these climatic changes on plant invasions and their impacts on ecosystems. The impacts of climate change on global mountain ecosystems have become a common phenomenon, with frequent occurrences of glacier melting and land degradation (Hamid et al. Front Plant Sci 11:421, 2020). These effects are common to vegetation, with high mountains being more vulnerable (Spence and Mahaney (1989) Plant succession on glacial deposits of Mount Kenya, East Africa. In: Mahaney WC (ed) Quaternary and environmental research on East African mountains, Balkema, pp 279–290; Theurillat and Guisan Climatic Change 50(1):77–109, 2001; Beniston (ed) (2002) Mountain environments in changing climates. Routledge). The global temperature has experienced a rise of 0.6°C in the last century, with evidence of a rise of 2°C in annual minimum temperatures in the European Alps (Beniston (1997) Variations of snow depth and duration in the Swiss Alps over the last 50 years: links to changes in large-scale climatic forcings. In Climatic change at high elevation sites (pp. 49–68). Springer, Dordrecht). This global temperature rise in mountains drives alpine vegetation to higher elevations (Salick et al., 2009; Root et al., 2003; Sattar et al., 2021). The Himalayas is experiencing a temperature rise higher than the global average, with evidence of similar changes in the future with its days and nights becoming warmer, and cold days and nights less frequent. But the climate change impact assessment on Himalaya-specific studies is not well known (Immerzeel et al. Science 328(5984):1382–1385, 2010; Chaudhary and Bawa, Biol Lett 7(5):767–770, 2011). No specific emphasis is given to distinguishing the Western Himalayas with a greater sensitivity to temperature fluctuations (Baidya et al. J Hydrol Meteorol 5(1):38–51, 2008; Dimri and Dash, Climatic Change 111(3):775–800, 2012) from the Eastern Himalayas to changes in rainfall regime (Pandey and Bardsley, Appl Geogr 64:74–86, 2015) despite significant socio-economic and environmental consequences (Chaudhary and Bawa, Biol Lett 7(5):767–770, 2011); Huettmann and Regmi, 2020).Invasive species increase the vulnerability of native species by weakening their biotic resistance to climate stressors. Consequently, the range of native species reduces and the species composition of a natural ecosystem alters (Burgiel and Muir (2010) Invasive species, climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation: addressing multiple drivers of global change global invasive species program, GISP United Nations Avenue P.O. Box 633–00621, Nairobi, Kenya, pp 56; Diez et al., 2012; Taylor and Kumar, J Environ Manag 114:414–422, 2013); Panda et al., 2018). Invasive species modify the ecosystem properties that have traditionally been thought to be uncommon in natural systems (Gordon, Ecol Appl 8(4):975-989, 1998). The invasive species alter the ecosystem processes (Vitousek, Oikos 57:7–13, 1990); Raizada et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci India Sect B – Biological Sciences, 78 nPART:4288–4298, 2008), community structure (Hejda et al. J Ecol 97:393−403, 2009a, Hejda et al. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 18(3), 372–382, 2009b); Vila et al. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 276(1674):3887–3893, 2009), and native species habitats (Cox (2004) Alien species and evolution: the evolutionary ecology of exotic plants, animals, microbes, and interacting native species. Island Press) and disrupt the ecological integrity and energy flow of native ecosystems (Pimentel et al. Agric Ecosyst Environ 84(1):1–20, 2001). Invasive species occupy the space created by glacier melting and human-mediated disturbances such as deforestation, tourism development, urbanization, overgrazing, and frequent movement by local people for fuelwood collection and the establishment of hydropower projects in mountain areas. But the magnitude and severity of climate change effects on plant invasions are unique for individual species (Pearson et al. Ecol Model 154:289−300, 2002), where the plasticity of a species to adapt to envermental challenges determines its success. Assessing these invasion risks are crucial for biosecurity, sustainable biodiversity, ecosystem restoration, and conservation prioritization (Thuiller et al. Ecography 27:165–172, 2004; Rhodes et al. Conserv Biol 20(2):449-459, 2006; Vaclavik and Meentemeyer, Ecol Model 220:3248–3258, 2009); Kriticos and Leriche, Ecography 33:115–127, 2010). In recent years, systematic studies on the impacts of plant invasions have been picked up, but most of the studies focus on regional and continental scales. Mountain-specific studies are limited, where data availability is a major constraint (IPCC, 2007). The Himalayas offers ample scope to study such climate change impacts on plant invasions and this chapter highlights the probability of plant invasions to the Indian Himalayan ecosystem.KeywordsGeneralized linear model Impact and Mitigation Intermediate disturbance hypothesis Invasion risks Maxent Native species Range size Species distributionThermophillic species

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