Modelling Climate Change and Glacier Melt for Sustainable Development of a Himalayan Region

Abstract

AbstractClimate change, expressed as increase in temperature rise and change in precipitation, will pose significant challenges to rural communities, leading to a possible effect on their occupation under a changing climate. Experience over the last decade has demonstrated a gradual rise in global temperatures, which coupled with the unpredictable precipitation patterns (rainfall and snow/glacier melt are considered as important hydrologic process in the Himalayan basins) are expected to seriously affect the melt characteristics and further increase pressure on available water resources (both quantity and quality). The situation is being exacerbated by the increasing water demands from agriculture, industry, and rising population. This study attempts to present the review of research done on the use of an integrated approach by using system dynamics technique in the context of evolving development plans under changing climate scenarios. The current investigations revealed that there is a lack of a general framework for assessment. The major responsibility of the planning community is to adopt rational planning approach addressing the complexity of the system, yet it is appearing that the models used at various stages are not well developed to keep the same pace. This demands the acknowledgment and a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of the system, i.e., inter-linkage and interdependence of the complex systems and subsystems (namely physical, social, economic, ecology, environment, infrastructure, and institutional subsystems) by using system dynamics technique. In this regard, a methodology has been developed for assessing the climate change and its impact on a region by signifying the importance of the holistic approach to address the complex sustainable development challenges whose interdependencies transcend individual sectors and administrative borders. The aim of this research is to evolve a plausible planning model under the changing climatic conditions of Tehri Garhwal district, which helps to achieve integrated sustainable development until 2041 A.D. by using combination of statistical techniques and system dynamic modelling. Overall, the present research seeks to answer the questions, such as how does climate change and climate variability affect overall district development (attractiveness)? Additional questions investigated are (1) what are the important supply uncertainties associated with a changing climate? (2) how can the integration of socio-economic, environmental and ecological issues be done to inform regional planning and development? (3) what are possible planning interventions and strategies for reducing the impacts of climate change on district development? A comprehensive grassroots-level investigation (primary survey—household level) has been carried out. Further, exploration and analysis of available literature (secondary data sources) are done to identify the important control parameters that influence the functions of the system. System dynamic model for sustainable development in the system has been evolved by considering control parameters of various subsystems of the system, and validation is carried out for the same. To understand the behavior of the model, projections were made using the validated model for the year 2041 A.D. Further, the functions of the systems were examined under various alternative conditions/scenarios. The scenarios were developed using the stakeholder participation and as well as from the information collected from the existing literature, concerning effective planning and management of district. Based on the detailed analysis of the evolved policies and their perceived outcomes, the investigators identified the best policy that is more suitable for the physical, social, economic, infrastructure, environmental and institutional, ecological subsystems, and overall development of the regional system. Finally, evolved a set of plausible policy guidelines and recommendations for the sustainable development of Tehri Garhwal district.