Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Abstract

the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions. to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves. within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals. to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest. the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values. it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas. the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.