Sustainable wheat production in a changing climate

Abstract

The dependence of winter wheat production on spring temperature and precipitation was analysed on the basis of historical meteorological data. Production was found to be a linear function of temperature, so increasing temperatures resulted in lower yields. The dependence of yield on precipitation could be described with a quadratic function, and the yield decreased above the optimal precipitation amount. The results of regression analysis are presented using 30-year data for Fejér County. Simulation modelling was used to analyse the suitability of future climates for growing winter wheat in Hungary. The locations chosen were heterogeneous in terms of meteorological conditions, but were all relatively flat and of great importance for Hungarian winter wheat production: Győr-Moson-Sopron County in W. Hungary, which is well supplied with precipitation, Hajdú-Bihar County in the east, where the weather is warmer and drier, and Pest County in the middle of the country. Evaluations were made using the Ceres-Wheat model and a modified version of AFRCWHEAT2. An analysis of the simulation results revealed that agricultural productivity is close to the upper limit of what can be achieved using conventional methods, so decreased yields and an increase in production risks are probable in the future in all three regions.